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# Pre-Mortem Template: The 30-Minute Product Risk Assessment

> A **pre-mortem template** is a structured 30-minute exercise where you imagine your product has failed catastrophically and work backward through five risk categories — demand, product, channel, business model, and competitive — to identify why. Each category produces scored risks and testable assumptions. The output: your top 3 kill-or-fix risks, explicit kill criteria, and a go/no-go decision backed by structured analysis rather than optimism.

A post-mortem asks: "Why did this fail?"

A **pre-mortem** asks: "Why *will* this fail?"—before you've built anything.

It's the single most effective technique for catching product risks early. Here's a complete template to run one in 30 minutes.

## Why Pre-Mortems Work

Traditional planning is optimistic. You imagine success and work backward.

Pre-mortems are deliberately pessimistic. You imagine failure and ask what caused it.

This mental shift surfaces risks your optimistic brain suppresses:
- The assumption you're not questioning
- The competitor you're underestimating
- The user behavior you're wishfully assuming
- The technical debt you're ignoring

Research by psychologist Gary Klein found that pre-mortems increase the ability to identify reasons for future outcomes by **30%**.

## The 30-Minute Pre-Mortem Template

### Setup (2 minutes)

**Prompt:** "Imagine it's 12 months from now. Your product has failed completely. It's dead. Users left. Revenue is zero. The project is shut down."

Write down: *"[Product name] failed because..."*

Now you'll fill in the "because."

---

### Part 1: Demand Risks (8 minutes)

These are risks that no one wants what you're building.

**Questions to answer:**

1. **What problem are you solving?**
   - Write it in one sentence
   - Is this a vitamin (nice to have) or painkiller (must have)?

2. **Who has this problem?**
   - Be specific: not "businesses" but "B2B SaaS founders with 10-50 employees"
   - How many of them exist?

3. **How are they solving it today?**
   - If "nothing," that's a red flag (maybe it's not a real problem)
   - If "competitor X," why would they switch?

4. **What's your evidence of demand?**
   - Interviews conducted: ___
   - Waitlist signups: ___
   - LOIs or pre-orders: ___
   - If blank, this is your #1 risk

**Template output:**

| Risk | Likelihood (1-5) | Impact (1-5) | Evidence |
|------|------------------|--------------|----------|
| Target users don't have this problem | | | |
| Problem isn't painful enough to pay for | | | |
| Existing solutions are good enough | | | |
| Market is too small | | | |

---

### Part 2: Product Risks (8 minutes)

These are risks that your solution doesn't actually solve the problem.

**Questions to answer:**

1. **What's your core value proposition?**
   - In one sentence, why is your solution better?
   - Is this a 10x improvement or incremental?

2. **What must be true for your product to work?**
   - List 3-5 critical assumptions
   - Which have you validated?

3. **What's the simplest version that delivers value?**
   - Can you describe a 1-week MVP?
   - If not, you might be overbuilding

4. **What will users complain about?**
   - Every product has weaknesses
   - What are yours?

**Template output:**

| Assumption | Confidence (1-5) | Validated? | Test to Run |
|------------|------------------|------------|-------------|
| Users will understand the value prop | | | |
| Core feature works as expected | | | |
| Users will complete onboarding | | | |
| Users will return after first use | | | |

---

### Part 3: Channel Risks (6 minutes)

These are risks that you can't reach your target users.

**Questions to answer:**

1. **How will users find you?**
   - Primary channel: ___
   - Do you have experience with this channel?

2. **What's your expected CAC?**
   - If you don't know, estimate
   - Is this sustainable given your price point?

3. **What's your unfair advantage in distribution?**
   - Existing audience?
   - Partnerships?
   - SEO moat?
   - If "none," distribution is a major risk

**Template output:**

| Channel | Expected CAC | Confidence | Backup Plan |
|---------|--------------|------------|-------------|
| | | | |

---

### Part 4: Business Model Risks (6 minutes)

These are risks that the math doesn't work.

**Questions to answer:**

1. **What will you charge?**
   - Price point: ___
   - How did you decide this?

2. **What does it cost to serve one user?**
   - Infrastructure: ___
   - Support: ___
   - AI/API costs: ___

3. **What's your target LTV:CAC ratio?**
   - Below 3:1 is usually unsustainable
   - Have you modeled this?

4. **When do you break even?**
   - Runway: ___
   - Required users/revenue: ___

**Template output:**

| Metric | Assumption | Validated? | Kill Threshold |
|--------|------------|------------|----------------|
| Price point | | | |
| Conversion rate | | | |
| Churn rate | | | |
| CAC | | | |

---

### Part 5: Competitive Risks (5 minutes)

These are risks that someone else wins instead.

**Questions to answer:**

1. **Who are your direct competitors?**
   - List top 3
   - What do they do better than you?

2. **Who could enter this market?**
   - Big tech risk?
   - Well-funded startup risk?

3. **What's your moat?**
   - Network effects?
   - Data advantage?
   - Brand?
   - If "none," you're in a race

**Template output:**

| Competitor | Their Advantage | Your Advantage | Threat Level |
|------------|-----------------|----------------|--------------|
| | | | |

---

### Synthesis (5 minutes)

**Step 1: Rank your risks**

Review everything you wrote. Pick the **top 3 risks** that could kill your product.

1. _______________
2. _______________
3. _______________

**Step 2: Define kill criteria**

For each top risk, define what would make you stop:

| Risk | Kill Criterion | How to Test |
|------|----------------|-------------|
| Risk 1 | If ___, we stop | |
| Risk 2 | If ___, we pivot | |
| Risk 3 | If ___, we pause | |

**Step 3: Make a decision**

Based on your pre-mortem:

- [ ] **GO** - Risks are manageable, proceed with validation plan
- [ ] **CONDITIONAL GO** - Proceed only if [specific test] passes
- [ ] **PAUSE** - Need more information before deciding
- [ ] **NO GO** - Risks are too high, kill or pivot

---

## Pre-Mortem Output Example

Here's what a completed pre-mortem looks like:

**Product:** AI-powered expense tracking for freelancers

**Top 3 Risks:**
1. Freelancers don't track expenses (behavior change required)
2. Market is too small (&lt; 1M potential users)
3. Competitors offer expense tracking as a feature, not a product

**Kill Criteria:**
1. If &lt; 5% of surveyed freelancers say they'd pay, stop
2. If TAM &lt; $10M, pivot to adjacent market
3. If 3+ competitors launch similar features in 6 months, differentiate or stop

**Decision:** CONDITIONAL GO - Run demand survey first

---

## Running This With AI

You can run this template manually, or use [Cutline's AI-powered pre-mortem](/pre-mortem) to:

- **Auto-generate risks** based on your product description
- **Score assumptions** by likelihood and impact
- **Get persona feedback** from simulated target users
- **Generate experiment plans** for each risk
- **Export a shareable report** for stakeholders

The AI pre-mortem takes 10 minutes instead of 30, and catches risks you might miss.

---

## When to Run a Pre-Mortem

- **Before starting a new product** - Catch fatal flaws early
- **Before major features** - Validate assumptions before building
- **Before fundraising** - Know your risks before investors ask
- **Quarterly** - Revisit as your product evolves

---

## Download the Template

Want a copy of this template? The full pre-mortem framework is built into Cutline.

[Run a Free Pre-Mortem →](/start)

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## FAQ

**Q: How long does a pre-mortem take?**

A manual pre-mortem takes 30 minutes: setup (2 min), demand risks (8 min), product risks (8 min), channel risks (6 min), business model and competitive risks (11 min), synthesis (5 min). AI-assisted takes about 10 minutes.

**Q: What are the five parts of a pre-mortem template?**

Demand risks (does anyone want this), product risks (does the solution work), channel risks (can you reach users), business model risks (does the math work), and competitive risks (will someone else win).

**Q: When should you run a pre-mortem?**

Before new products, before major features, before fundraising, and quarterly as your product evolves.

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*Pre-mortems don't predict the future. They prepare you for it. The best founders know what could kill them—and build anyway, with eyes open.*


risk analysis

Pre-Mortem Template: The 30-Minute Product Risk Assessment